Abdusattorov holds his grip on the FIDE Circuit race, but just barely. After May tournaments, the Uzbek grandmaster leads Sindarov by a thin margin, though Sindarov keeps hunting him down with a strong 8.53-point haul at Romania's Super Chess Classic.
Caruana sits third with 28.93 points after collecting runner-up finishes across three tournaments. He's not threatening the top two yet, but he's steady.
The real movers are Keymer and the Norway Chess winners. Keymer broke the top 10 with his Romania victory, landing fourth. Praggnanandhaa and Wesley So surged into contention after Norway Chess, one of the circuit's heaviest point-scoring events. Both now occupy spots in the upper tier.
The race shapes up as a two-horse contest between Abdusattorov and Sindarov, with enough tournaments remaining that either could claim victory by year's end. Caruana looks more like a spoiler than a threat. The depth behind them is real though. Keymer proved he belongs among the elite. Praggnanandhaa and So showed they can grind through long tournaments and accumulate points quickly.
Abdusattorov needs to protect his lead. One bad month could hand Sindarov the advantage. The circuit still has months to run.