Wesley So stands one win away from his second U.S. Championship title. The Filipino grandmaster drew Hans Niemann in less than an hour during round 10 in Saint Louis, extending his lead to a full point at 7/10. Fabiano Caruana and Grigoriy Oparin trail at 6/10 each, setting up a dramatic final round where either could still force a playoff with a victory.
The So-Niemann game never threatened to become anything. They steered into a theoretical Nimzo-Indian, traded pieces methodically, and reached an endgame both players assessed as drawn. The speed of the draw suggests neither player saw room to press, which tells you something about So's position. He has built a cushion large enough that even if he draws again today, he likely clinches outright. Caruana would need to beat whoever sits across from him and hope So loses, a narrow path. Oparin needs the same miracle.
What makes So's lead hold up is consistency over brilliance. He has not produced the spectacular king hunts or sacrifices that grab headlines. Instead, he plays soundly, avoids complications when the position does not demand them, and converts advantages methodically. This is championship chess at the highest American level. The 1980s and 1990s saw more fireworks in U.S. Championship games. Today's format rewards precision and risk management.
On the women's side, rookie sensation Rachael Li continues her breakthrough tournament. She beat Rose Atwell in round 10 and leads Alice Lee by a point at 6.5/10. Lee kept pace with a win of her own, so Wednesday's finale remains contested. Li's rise through this field has been the story of the championship. She arrived relatively unknown in the American elite and played like someone who belonged there immediately. A title would announce her arrival permanently.
The women's section features different dynamics than the open. With several players still mathematically alive for first place heading into round 11, anything can happen in the final round. Lee in particular carries momentum. She has been scoring consistently and will face an opponent she can beat. If Li draws or loses while Lee wins, they finish tied and likely share the title, though tiebreak procedures would apply.
Both tournaments conclude today at 1 p.m. ET. So should navigate to his second crown. In the women's section, Li's coronation is less certain, which makes it more interesting. The U.S. Championship settles nothing until the final game ends.