Nodirbek Abdusattorov is the runaway story of Tata Steel 2026. Through seven rounds he leads with 5.5 points, half a point ahead of Magnus Carlsen and a full point clear of Fabiano Caruana.
His wins over Caruana and Gukesh in consecutive rounds have been the talk of the event. Against Gukesh in round six, Abdusattorov played a precise Nimzo-Indian, neutralized Black's queenside counterplay, and converted a rook endgame that looked drawn to most observers. He played on. He won in 71 moves.
Carlsen is in the hunt but not at his dominant Tata Steel best. He dropped a point to Anish Giri early on, an unusual slip for the world's highest-rated player, and has since recovered with three straight wins. Still, he cannot afford another mistake.
Six rounds remain. The critical game arrives in round ten, when Abdusattorov and Carlsen meet directly. Whoever wins that game is the tournament favorite. Lose it, and catching a player in this form would be nearly impossible.